xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?
10
1kṀ985
2026
31%
chance

Elon Musk keeps speaking about the importance of truth seeking in AIs. He himself acknowledged Grok is not that yet.

Will his company xAI be actually able to build something like this before 2027?

Resolves based on my opinion or if there is a disagreement, then based on a poll.

  • Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided their definition of truth-seeking AI:

    • Aspiring to be accurate.

    • As opposed to giving the popular, liked opinion.

  • Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator provided a concrete negative example for truth-seeking AI:

    • An AI whose reception is characterized by 'glazing' (using the example of GPT-4o's recent popular reception) is not considered truth-seeking.

    • This type of reception is viewed as an instance of an AI giving the popular, liked opinion, rather than aspiring to be accurate.

  • Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has further specified requirements for an AI to be considered truth-seeking, focusing on its implementation:

    • The truth-seeking characteristic should ideally be built into the model, for example, through its training or architecture.

    • A system prompt that merely instructs the AI to "be accurate" will not be sufficient to meet this criterion.

  • Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated an additional signal they will look for to identify a truth-seeking AI:

    • It should be able to predict the future much better than other models.

  • Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that their evaluation of whether xAI "builds truth-seeking AI" (as per the market question) will also consider:

    • Whether xAI makes obvious attempts towards this goal.

    • Whether these attempts show promise. The creator further related this to the AI needing to have its "map corresponding to territory", which they state should enable better predictions.

  • Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the following points for resolution:

    • For the market to resolve YES, it is not a requirement that xAI is the first to build a truth-seeking AI.

    • A truth-seeking AI built by xAI that might contradict Elon Musk would not in itself prevent a YES resolution, reinforcing that the AI should prioritize accuracy.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy