@patrik "Critics, including scholars and commentators from varied ideological backgrounds, argue that "woke" ideology fosters a rejection of objective truth, logic, and debate in favor of subjective narratives rooted in power dynamics and oppression frameworks, often leading to institutional capture and policy failures."

https://grokipedia.com/page/Woke_(disambiguation)#pejorative-and-critical-interpretations-in-contemporary-discourse

I'm not sure whether this section would count

@Marnix https://grokipedia.com/page/Elon_Musk#controversies-and-criticisms

@256 shall we count a dedicated section as YES? or do you need a separate article?

https://grokipedia.com/page/Tesla_Autopilot#teslas-reported-crash-statistics-20192025

@MiguelLM This section obviously isn't a list of crashes. The expected article would describe each incident, or each incident that was severe enough to have gotten in the news.

@patrik you can resolve YES

"The Clinton body count refers to a long-circulating conspiracy theory"
https://grokipedia.com/page/Clinton_body_count

@MiguelLM

This resolves based of its state at the end of 2025.

Currently, the "Cisgender" page does not state that it is a slur, but does quote Musk on this matter.

Released on a Friday resolves NO

@WoahD_ musk called this a beta, and it's probably pretty different from the intended thing (eg it doesn't allow editing through grok), I wouldn't count this as the release.

https://grokipedia.com/page/Clinton_body_count

The Clinton body count refers to a long-circulating conspiracy theory

It will exhibit both positive and negative bias towards elon musk and no one will want to do the work of measuring which persona is more active.

@makoyass okay I'm seeing zero negative bias in the elon musk article. There's a long controversies section but none of them land a solid hit. I'm not sure whether this constitutes positive bias, it could also just be that the worst things elon has done aren't easily provable (eg, that time an "overeager intern" modified grok's prompt to prevent it from acknowledging an embarrassing thing about him) or widely enough known to be notable.

It doesn't mention the nazi salute? Alas, I am in the camp who thinks he's just enough of a spaz to do one unintentionally, so I don't know whether to call that bias.

@makoyass Oh, no, the Diablo fake gamer thing, that was extremely public, extremely embarrassing, it gets no mention here, but it could also fall into the "not notable" basket. His Wikipedia article does mention it, but it doesn't seem to be widely understood the extent to which he was lying and the extent to which it was embarrassing, so I'm not sure if it indicates bias to omit it.

@patrik on any Friday between now and the end of the year? or on a specific Friday?

@shankypanky any friday

Meowdy! This one’s a true catnip mix—multi-option, independent resolution, and the CREATOR says GPT-5, with Grokipedia context, will judge each claim at the end of 2025. That means all market options are judged from Grokipedia’s own state, not external impressions. Patrik Cihal’s explicit control means his comments are resolution law, and he’ll have GPT-5 check Grokipedia articles directly for each claim. With no strong creator clarifications on edge cases (yet), I’ll trust standard interpretations.

Let’s pick some confident YESes and NOs:

• "Will have an article listing Tesla Autopilot crashes": Near certainty, since Musk’s ventures are central and controversy attracts attention.

• "Will have an article about Vivian Wilson": Likely—she’s Musk’s daughter, so Grokipedia should cover his family.

• "Will have at least 300.000 articles": Unlikely unless Grokipedia scales fast; big, but not Wikipedia-big by 2025.

• "Will state the word 'cis' is a slur": Very unlikely—too controversial, Grokipedia aims for wide audience.

• "It will classify being transgender as mental health disorder": Also very unlikely (same reasoning).

• "There will be obvious falsehoods": Some chance—new wikis usually have errors, but GPT-5 may judge “obvious” strictly.

• "Manifold poll will say it's a lot better than Wikipedia": Skeptical—Wikipedia is a gold standard, so a “lot better” is a

@MiaCat rip

See also

Grokipedia incoming!

"It will exceed expectations"

a priori this should be 50/50.

@whloooomer The question is- whose expectations?

nvm

You’ll use AI from grokipedia to resolve this market?

Dupe of https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/what-will-be-true-about-grokipedia

@KJW_01294 GPT-5 is from OpenAI

@patrik your words are “with context from grokipedia,” how does this amount to an objective measure of what grokipedia is and isn’t?

@KJW_01294 That is saying I'll give GPT-5 link to the relevant articles so that it can judge it based of that.