Grokipedia props
109
2.9kṀ15k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES
Released before November
Resolved
YES
It will be positively biased with respect to Elon Musk
Resolved
YES
Negative about woke stuff
Resolved
YES
Right wing leaning
Resolved
YES
There will be obvious falsehoods
Resolved
YES
Will explicitly state that Israel is committing / has committed a genocide in Gaza
Resolved
YES
Will have at least 300.000 articles
Resolved
YES
It will say something negative about Elon Musk
Resolved
YES
It will link to Wikipedia as a source for something other than information about Wikipedia itself
Resolved
YES
Manifold poll will say it's right wing
Resolved
YES
Will call "Clinton body count" a conspiracy theory
Resolved
NO
Manifold poll will say it's a lot better than Wikipedia
Resolved
NO
It will exceed expectations
Resolved
NO
Some new sufficiently interesting discovered truth (eg. "why do humans enjoy music")
Resolved
NO
Will have an article about Vivian Wilson
Resolved
NO
Will state the word "cis" is a slur
Resolved
NO
It will classify being transgender as mental health disorder
Resolved
NO
Will have an article listing Tesla Autopilot crashes
Resolved
NO
Someone will sue xAI/X for defamation because of the contents of an article
Resolved
NO
Manifold poll will say it's as good as Wikipedia

I'll use GPT-5 Thinking with context from Grokipedia and comments on this Market for resolutions.

This resolves based of its state at the end of 2025.

  • Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided additional reference materials for resolution:

Polls to be considered:

  • Is Grokipedia a lot better than Wikipedia?

  • Is Grokipedia as good as Wikipedia?

  • Is Grokipedia right-wing?

Chat log: Available at the provided markdown pastebin link

These materials will be used alongside Grokipedia context when GPT-5 Thinking makes resolution decisions.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ237
2Ṁ197
3Ṁ190
4Ṁ114
5Ṁ106
Sort by:

@256 What if it has an article listing no or only minor crashes?

@CommanderKeen "I'll use GPT-5 Thinking with context from Grokipedia and comments on this Market for resolutions."

@CommanderKeen what do you mean exactly?

At the bottom of most pages, such as https://grokipedia.com/page/Transistor, it says:
"The content is adapted from Wikipedia, licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License."

Therefore, it is sourcing from Wikipedia.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@patrik "Critics, including scholars and commentators from varied ideological backgrounds, argue that "woke" ideology fosters a rejection of objective truth, logic, and debate in favor of subjective narratives rooted in power dynamics and oppression frameworks, often leading to institutional capture and policy failures."

https://grokipedia.com/page/Woke_(disambiguation)#pejorative-and-critical-interpretations-in-contemporary-discourse

I'm not sure whether this section would count

@MiguelLM Read the description pls. You can post evidence in the comments but there is no point in tagging people...

I'll use GPT-5 Thinking with context from Grokipedia and comments on this Market for resolutions.

@patrik OK

I was using the reply button to post a comment about each specific response, and this automatically tags the response creator.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@256 shall we count a dedicated section as YES? or do you need a separate article?

https://grokipedia.com/page/Tesla_Autopilot#teslas-reported-crash-statistics-20192025

@MiguelLM This section obviously isn't a list of crashes. The expected article would describe each incident, or each incident that was severe enough to have gotten in the news.

@makoyass yeah, this, pretty much.

bought Ṁ300 YES

@patrik you can resolve YES

"The Clinton body count refers to a long-circulating conspiracy theory"
https://grokipedia.com/page/Clinton_body_count

@MiguelLM

This resolves based of its state at the end of 2025.

Currently, the "Cisgender" page does not state that it is a slur, but does quote Musk on this matter.

Released on a Friday resolves NO

@WoahD_ musk called this a beta, and it's probably pretty different from the intended thing (eg it doesn't allow editing through grok), I wouldn't count this as the release.

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://grokipedia.com/page/Clinton_body_count

The Clinton body count refers to a long-circulating conspiracy theory

It will exhibit both positive and negative bias towards elon musk and no one will want to do the work of measuring which persona is more active.

@makoyass okay I'm seeing zero negative bias in the elon musk article. There's a long controversies section but none of them land a solid hit. I'm not sure whether this constitutes positive bias, it could also just be that the worst things elon has done aren't easily provable (eg, that time an "overeager intern" modified grok's prompt to prevent it from acknowledging an embarrassing thing about him) or widely enough known to be notable.

It doesn't mention the nazi salute? Alas, I am in the camp who thinks he's just enough of a spaz to do one unintentionally, so I don't know whether to call that bias.

@makoyass Oh, no, the Diablo fake gamer thing, that was extremely public, extremely embarrassing, it gets no mention here, but it could also fall into the "not notable" basket. His Wikipedia article does mention it, but it doesn't seem to be widely understood the extent to which he was lying and the extent to which it was embarrassing, so I'm not sure if it indicates bias to omit it.

@makoyass "It will say something negative about Elon Musk" should resolve YES even if only one tiny negative thing is said, and many other major critics are omitted, and tons of good things are said.

Both “It will be positively biased with respect to Elon Musk” and "It will say something negative about Elon Musk" can resolve YES at the same time, and it is likely they will do.

@MiguelLM I was only talking about the bias question here (the "it will say something negative" question is silly)

@patrik on any Friday between now and the end of the year? or on a specific Friday?

@shankypanky any friday

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy