The pollster must be rated at-least 2.5 stars on 538's pollster ratings
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
and obviously I have to be made aware of it (and be able to access the full detailed results needed for above calculation). I might miss a just a one off poll where this barely happens so please comment it here if you want a guarantee that I am aware of it.
Example: In this Gallup poll taken at the end of his term after 71% of those whom identified themselves as being conservative approved of him
https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/328649/210118TrumpFinal.pdf
which
This is the lowest approval rating Gallup has ever recorded for him and took place right after the insurrection. Less then 50% approval among this group would still require a 30% drop from this figure.
Will Trump ever lack majority approval among conservatives before his death?
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23% chance
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58% chance
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36% chance
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23% chance
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16% chance
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24% chance
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66% chance
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50% chance
How Low Will Donald Trumps Approval get in 2026?
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6% chance