This market resolves to the favorability percentage among Republicans according to 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/r/

The exact metric measured is "favorable" (and not "net favorable"). On February 8, 2024, Trump's "favorable" according to 538 is 78.5%. (His "unfavorable" is 19.5%, and his "net favorable" is +59.0%.)

The resolution decision will be made as close as possible to the time of death (even if that excludes surveys from before the death that have not yet been added to 538).

If 538 no longer aggregates data on Trump's favorability among Republicans at the time of Trump's death, then a suitable replacement will be found (with consultation from the community). The core of the idea is to measure the general approval and loyalty of Republicans toward Trump over time.

• Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Poll Data Source Update

  • With 538 offline, the resolution will use the RealClearPolling (RCP) index as a data source.

  • Only polls that include favorability among Republicans (excluding "leaners") will be used.

  • Examples of included polls are from Economist/YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, and Gallup (all dated around March 2025).

  • A simple average of these polls will be calculated to determine the final resolution value.