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MANIFOLD
Danish Government: Which pairs of parties will govern together or be in opposition together [read desc.] [+500 liqudity]
10
Ṁ1kṀ1.3k
resolved Jun 16
Resolved
NO
Social Democrats & Venstre
Resolved
YES
Social Democrats & Moderates
Resolved
YES
Social Democrats & Green Left
Resolved
YES
Social Democrats & Danish Social Liberal Party
Resolved
NO
Social Democrats & Conservative People's Party
Resolved
NO
Social Democrats & Liberal Alliance
Resolved
NO
Venstre & Moderates
Resolved
NO
Venstre & Green Left
Resolved
YES
Venstre & Liberal Alliance
Resolved
YES
Venstre & Conservative People's Party
Resolved
NO
Venstre & Danish Social Liberal Party
Resolved
YES
Moderates & Green Left
Resolved
NO
Moderates & Liberal Alliance
Resolved
NO
Moderates & Conservative People's Party
Resolved
YES
Moderates & Danish Social Liberal Party
Resolved
NO
Green Left & Liberal Alliance
Resolved
NO
Green Left & Conservative People's Party
Resolved
YES
Green Left & Danish Social Liberal Party
Resolved
YES
Liberal Alliance & Conservative People's Party
Resolved
NO
Liberal Alliance & Danish Social Liberal Party

All pairs both in the next government (after the 2026 danish election) or both not in the government resolve to YES. All pairs with one party in and one party out resolve as NO.

If a party does not win any seats it's corresponding pairs resolve as N/A.

For the purposes of this market confidence and supply agreements count as being in the government.

Clarification: What polymarket counts as "in the government" (here) + any parties listed on wikipedia as being governing parties or in a confidence and supply agreement with thereof (here) will count here as "in the government".

If no government is formed before 2028 all pairs resolve N/A.

Parties:

Social Democrats (wiki)
social democracy
center left, in last government, current prime minister


Venstre (wiki)
conservative liberalism, Nordic agrarianism
center right, in last government


Moderates (wiki)
liberalism
center to center right, in last government


Green Left (wiki)
democratic socialism, green politics, popular socialism
center left to left wing


Liberal Alliance (wiki)
classical liberalism, right-libertarianism
center right to right wing


Conservative People's Party (wiki)
conservatism, liberal conservatism, social conservatism
center right


Social Liberal Party (wiki)
social liberalism, pro-Europeanism
center to center left

Current parliament composition:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folketing

Election results:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election#2025_2

  • Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is about the Danish election (not Dutch), despite the description mentioning "dutch election".

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@mods Can the question be resolved? The linked polymarketsite was resolved 5 days ago, so the answer should be pretty clear.

sold Ṁ14 YES

A government consisting of Social Democrats, Green Left, Moderates and Social Liberals, has been formed. You can resolve the question.

donated 500 liquidity

What are the rules on supporting parties?

"For the purposes of this market confidence and supply agreements count as being in the government."

I would like to though outside of that I didn't originally include supporting parties outside of a formal confidence and supply agreement in the rules so not sure what would be the best way to resolve in this case. If I were to how should I include supporting parties in a way that does not leave a lot of grey area? Whatever parties Wikipedia lists as supporting?

Any advice for how to resolve that matches the spirit of this question? Should I sell all my shares to be more impartial?

@PhillipThode This market will resolve to whatever parties Polymarket counts as in the next danish government (https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-denmark) in addition to any parties listed on the parliament wiki page as being part of confidence and supply agreement here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_and_supply#List_of_governments_currently_under_a_confidence-and-supply_agreement

Is this about the danish or dutch election?

@parkerfriedland Sorry I didn't realize I put dutch in the description. That is corrected now

@spiderduckpig not sure if you read the rules correctly but along with resolving yes when both parties are in government these markets also resolve yes if both parties are in the opposition as well.

these only resolve no when one of the parties is but the other isn't

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