NOTE: The market will resolve to which answer (after close) has the highest number of traders owning YES shares in that answer, not the answer with the highest probability. If there are multiple answers with the exact same number of traders at close, this will resolve to those multiple answers rather than a single answer.
The market is only open for 30 days. After 30 days I will count the number of traders who own YES shares in each answer and the market will resolve to the answer with the most number of traders owning at least 1 share; hopefully, this will resemble a real poll AND incentivize people to vote confidently in the result.
Motivation: In general, I hypothesize how individually passive/active the users are ON the manifold site in terms of interaction/commenting (aside from how the information is used outside of the site) and their reasons/value in doing so are related. I think it would be interesting to do a poll to see what are Manifold users' judgment of the collective's primary value of this site. I also hypothesize there is a tension between users when it is not obvious between them what other users primary purpose/value the users are getting from Manifold Markets (maybe it should be in their profile or next to their name)?
This is my own categorization with more detail, which I agree is entirely debatable:
Tool for forecasting and informed decision-making
Information aggregation
Research, analysis, insights
Upskilling (financial, decision-making, epistemic, forecasting)
Speculation (gamification, AKA the fun option)
I am not pruning list for counting purposes of traders with alts/bots (bots will count).
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน75 | |
| 2 | แน75 | |
| 3 | แน73 | |
| 4 | แน49 | |
| 5 | แน37 |
People are also trading
The final count, the fun option, Speculation (gamification) wins. More 'votes' than all others combined.
Number of unique traders holding at least one share for each answer in the market (what-is-the-primary-value-users-get):
YES | NO - CHOICE
======================
2 | 0 - Tool for forecasting
5 | 0 - Information aggregation
8 | 0 - Research, analysis, insights
6 | 1 - Upskilling
27 | 0 - Speculation (gamification)
Number of unique traders holding at least one share for each answer in the market (what-is-the-primary-value-users-get):
YES | NO - CHOICE
======================
2 | 0 - Tool for forecasting
5 | 0 - Information aggregation
8 | 0 - Research, analysis, insights
6 | 1 - Upskilling
26 | 0 - Speculation (gamification)
July 24 - At this point: Speculation/Fun still is the biggest, but, the gap has now widened to 18 traders between the leader and the next contender.
(I don't think there is any value in betting NO based on how I will resolve it, so don't bet NO,)
After some experience with those other meta-markets, I think it helps if I make it explicit: I'm not going to try to prune the list of traders of bots or suspect traders when it comes to resolution (so BOTS will count).
Wrote a script to do the counting of shareholders. I'll try to regularly update to make it easier to see what is going on. Script is here if anyone finds it useful: https://github.com/JRPdata/manifold_count_holders/tree/main
Number of unique traders holding at least one share for each answer in the market (what-is-the-primary-value-users-get):
YES | NO - CHOICE
1 | 0 - Tool for forecasting
2 | 0 - Information aggregation
3 | 0 - Research, analysis, insights
2 | 0 - Upskilling
5 | 0 - Speculation (gamification)
With the new multi option markets, users can own yes or no shares in each option, and the system will automatically distribute shares around to make the sum of probablilities 100.
Can you please clarify how you plan to do the count ?
Also, I don't really understand the different options here, what's the difference between research and upskilling ? And what does more active/passive mean ?
@Odoacre Yes, I've clarified in the description about the YES/NO: Any traders owning a single YES share will count as one trader. The NO shares will not factor in.
Active/passive is my own commentary, I've edited it out of the description as that is apparently just confusing.
@Odoacre Yes, I've clarified in the description about the YES/NO: Any traders owning a single YES share will count as one trader. The NO shares will not factor in. Again, I will count the number of traders that have at least one YES share after close and the market will resolve to the answer with the highest number of such traders (if there is a tie with the count it will resolve to multiple).
Active/passive is my own commentary, I've edited it out of the description as that is apparently just confusing.
Upskilling is using the site to improve your skills in any of a wide range of domains (financial, forecasting, etc).
In the description I have said I care about the value extracted while you are ON the site but I don't know if voters in this poll will care because it is somewhat a murky demarcation, but the following is just general guidance (I don't want to over-specify): I think the affirmative, boundary, value case for research/analysis option would be you may have an insight that there is some information you are missing that is gleaned from just the market numbers, do additional research off-site and only use that information off-site. Generally I think of research and analysis as new information/analysis in the comments (to delineate it from information aggregation) but I've lumped insights into there as well in the boundary cases of the above. This is to differentiate research/analysis option from using a market more broadly as a forecasting tool and for decision making, where you are weighting the 'wisdom of the crowd' in your forecasting and decision making.
I think of information aggregation as using the market's comments for the many references/sources on a topic/event that users post.