Will the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit?
12
1kṀ705
2050
30%
chance

Trading will be extended until the first crewed mars mission will happen
The mission's goals must involve at least getting into Mars' orbit (flybys won't count)
Mission abortion can be defined as a "partial failure" or inability to complete any single important milestone of the mission (e.g. a decision to not land on Mars if the initial mission involved crewed landing). E.g. Apollo 13 would count as a mission abortion
Loss of life or mission abortion can happen on any stage of the mission

  • Update 2025-07-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that reaching Mars orbit is defined as a successful insertion burn.

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