When will a Chinese astronaut first set foot on Mars? (by decade)
When will a Chinese astronaut first set foot on Mars? (by decade)
2
135Ṁ202080
1D
1W
1M
ALL
32%
2030s
46%
2040s
21%
The timezone used will be UTC.
Resolves to the accurate decade.
Chinese meaning a Chinese citzen sent up on a Chinese rocket (and not meaning ethnicity).
According to Wang Xiaojun, head of the state-owned China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, China plans to send its first crew to Mars and planning base for regular crewed missions, primary launches to Mars are planned for 2033, 2035, 2037, 2041.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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