Resolution criteria

A government shutdown occurs when federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. This market resolves YES if a shutdown meeting this definition occurs at any point between now and December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) or Congress confirming a lapse in appropriations. The market resolves NO if the government remains continuously funded through the end of 2026 via appropriations bills or continuing resolutions.