Will Netanyahu visit at least one nation that recognizes ICC jurisdiction by May 22nd, 2025?
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If the ICC doesn't issue a warrant against Netanyahu before the end of 2024, this question resolves to N/A.

This question will resolve to Yes if Netanyahu visits at least one nation that recognizes ICC jurisdiction within 6 months of the warrant being issued — update warrant was issued on Nov 22nd, so visit must occur by May 22nd, 2025. He must visit said nation over land, not just fly over it. The warrant must be active during the visit - so if the ICC formally cancels the warrant and Netanyahu then travels to France, this won’t resolve to Yes.

Definition of “recognize jurisdiction”: the country in question must have signed and ratified the ICC statute, Such countries are highlighted green in the map below. Countries that officially withdraw from the ICC statute before Netanyahu’s visit will not count.

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 51% order

Betting on a near immediate visit to humiliate the ICC.

@traders warrant has been issued, question is no longer conditional: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna181320

sold Ṁ13 NO

Why on earth would he?

@RemNi as a statement of power?

@nsokolsky but which country would he go to and feel confident about that choice? I'm guessing South Africa is off the table

@RemNi to humiliate the ICC? Warrant has been issued, Hungary has already invited him over.

By recognize ICC jurisdiction you mean also countries that signed but didn't ratify the Rome statues (e.g the U.S)?

@Magyk US is not included because they didn’t ratify the statute. Criteria updated.

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