If the ICC doesn't issue a warrant against Netanyahu before the end of 2024, this question resolves to N/A.
This question will resolve to Yes if Netanyahu visits at least one nation that recognizes ICC jurisdiction within 6 months of the warrant being issued — update warrant was issued on Nov 22nd, so visit must occur by May 22nd, 2025. He must visit said nation over land, not just fly over it. The warrant must be active during the visit - so if the ICC formally cancels the warrant and Netanyahu then travels to France, this won’t resolve to Yes.
Definition of “recognize jurisdiction”: the country in question must have signed and ratified the ICC statute, Such countries are highlighted green in the map below. Countries that officially withdraw from the ICC statute before Netanyahu’s visit will not count.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,419 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,011 | |
| 3 | Ṁ967 | |
| 4 | Ṁ183 | |
| 5 | Ṁ143 |
People are also trading
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c807lm2003zo.amp
Hungary didn’t start withdrawing until after Bibi already arrived - resolves yes
At least Hungary is now out of the ICC https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250403-israel-s-netanyahu-arrives-in-hungary-defying-icc-warrant
@JussiVilleHeiskanen No, article says that Hungary is starting withdrawal process. It has not withdrawn yet.
@nsokolsky and even if he is arrested, since Israel is a major US ally, it is covered under the American Service-Members' Protection Act, which explicitly authorizes the US president to use "all means necessary and appropriate" to rescue him from the International Cangaroo Court
@traders warrant has been issued, question is no longer conditional: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna181320
@nsokolsky but which country would he go to and feel confident about that choice? I'm guessing South Africa is off the table