This market resolves based on the number of U.S. states that pass new legislation specifically addressing transgender rights (either supportive or restrictive) between now and September 8, 2025.

To qualify, legislation must:

1. Be passed by the state legislature and signed into law by the governor (or passed by veto override)

2. Specifically address transgender rights, protections, or restrictions

3. Be a new law, not merely an amendment to existing legislation

Both supportive legislation (expanding protections) and restrictive legislation (limiting rights) will be counted.

Resolution will be based on official state legislative records and reliable news coverage.

Background

The landscape of transgender rights legislation in the United States is rapidly evolving. As of early 2025, there are approximately 115 trans-specific bills prefiled across various states, with significant concentrations in Texas, Missouri, and South Carolina. The Trans Legislation Tracker reports 696 bills under consideration across 49 states, with 18 bills already passed.

In recent years, there has been a surge in legislation related to transgender rights, covering areas such as:

• Healthcare access and restrictions

• Participation in sports

• Bathroom and facility usage

• Identity document policies

• Anti-discrimination protections

• Education policies

Some states are pursuing restrictive legislation while others are working to expand protections for transgender individuals.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of U.S. states that pass new legislation specifically addressing transgender rights between now and September 8, 2025.

For a piece of legislation to count toward the final tally, it must:

1. Be passed by the state legislature and signed into law by the governor (or passed through a veto override)

2. Specifically address transgender rights, protections, or restrictions

3. Be a new law, not merely an amendment to existing legislation

Both supportive legislation (expanding protections) and restrictive legislation (limiting rights) will be counted toward the total.

Resolution will be determined using official state legislative records and reliable news coverage.

Considerations

• Executive orders issued by governors will not count toward the total, as they are not legislation passed by state legislatures

• If a state passes multiple qualifying laws during the timeframe, that state will only be counted once toward the total

• Laws that address LGBTQ+ rights broadly but do not specifically mention or target transgender individuals will not count

• The current pace of legislative activity suggests significant potential for new laws to be passed before the resolution date