If Manifest x DC or any other Manifest event (including Minifest and actual Manifest) I judge to be like FYRE festival or scammy in any sense. To count as a Manifest event, I must be reasonable sure it was created by an actual Manifold user and at least somewhat endorsed by Manifold Markets Inc. If this market hasn't resolved YES by the time Manifold Inc. shuts down, resolves NO.
Examples of things that would make this market resolve YES:
Most speakers don't show up.
Manifold Admin/Core Team doesn't show up.
Someone dies (clearly not for medical reasons).
There is no food (unless it was clearly stated there will be no food).
Someone steals all the ticket money.
Edge cases: I will do a poll before resolving
Update 2025-09-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The example "Manifold Admin/Core Team doesn't show up" is corrected to: Event organizers don't show up.
Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will remain open (and can resolve YES if criteria are met) until Manifold Inc shuts down, not just until the close date.
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I would point out that I wouldn't necessarily expect the manifold core team to come in person to future ManifestX events. We do expect several to travel out for DC's in November, but it'sthe first one and they're coordinating. Recommend them coming is strong evidence against scamminess, but not coming is weak evidence for.