Will @realDonaldTrump go to Manifest this year?
9
100Ṁ125
Aug 30
22%
chance
3

@Geofry and I go to the same middle school on the east coast. We want to go to Manifest next year. We are generally in the upper class and we fly out to do other events and the like.

I don't get in trouble a lot but my parents were considering taking away Manifold after the whole /realDonaldTrump/am-i-screwed-read-desc incident. But I am not planning on doing anything very chaotic or disruptive over the next year, and I think my parents and @Geofry's parents would otherwise be willing to go. It would probably be like 2 birthday presents or something. My dad is also interested in markets (professional stock trader) but has not joined Manifold.

Resolves YES if we go to Manifest 2026, and the event is officially sponsored by Manifold Markets or @SirSalty/@ian/@SG. Resolves N/A if Manifold, Manifest, or the Bay Area cease to exist.

If we go to a ManfestX or Minifest, resolves 50%.

  • Update 2025-12-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): @Geofry has deleted his account. The market will now resolve based solely on whether the creator attends Manifest, independent of whether Geofry attends.

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Update 12/22/25: Geofry has deleted this account so this will resolve independently of his going to manifest or not, it will only be based on my presence.

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