A new open weights reasoning model w/ <= 13B parameters will be released before Jan 1st 2025
4
100Ṁ137resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market predicts whether a new open weights AI reasoning model with 13B or fewer parameters, comparable in performance to QwQ and o1-mini, will be released before January 1st, 2025.
Resolution criteria: Official announcement or release of the model by an AI company, with published parameter count and open weights.
References:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ52 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before July 2026?
Will OpenAI announce a new full-size, frontier model >5.2 before March 1, 2026?
71% chance
Have Claude Sonnet 4.5 model weights leaked before October 2025?
1% chance
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
50% chance
Will a Ranke-4B model's weights be released publicly before March?
48% chance
Open weight AI system below 100B parameters gets 5/6 on IMO 2026?
44% chance
Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
25% chance
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
60% chance