Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if OpenAI officially announces a new frontier-class model with a version number greater than 5.2 (e.g., GPT-5.3, GPT-5.5, GPT-6) before March 1, 2026. Announcement must come via official OpenAI channels (blog, website, social media, press release). Minor patches, safety updates, or API-only variants (like GPT-5.2-Codex) do not count—there must be a distinct new model designation marketed as a capability upgrade over GPT-5.2.

Resolves NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline.

Background

GPT-5.2 launched December 11, 2025, internally codenamed "Garlic." OpenAI accelerated its release in response to Google's Gemini 3 (November 2025) and Anthropic's Opus 4.5, both of which outperformed GPT-5.1 on coding and reasoning benchmarks. CEO Sam Altman declared a "code red" in early December, pausing other projects (including the "Pulse" personal assistant) to focus resources on ChatGPT improvements.

In recent interviews, Altman has teased a "big upgrade in Q1 2026," though it's unclear whether this refers to a new base model or product-level changes. Some speculation suggests a separate "full Garlic" model beyond GPT-5.2, or a GPT-5.3/5.5 release, though this remains unconfirmed. Another model codenamed "Shallotpeat" has reportedly been in development since at least October 2025.

Considerations

Bull case: OpenAI's recent release cadence has been aggressive—GPT-5 (Aug), 5.1 (Nov), 5.2 (Dec)—suggesting continued iteration. Competitive pressure from Google and Anthropic remains intense, and Altman's Q1 2026 tease implies something is coming soon.

Bear case: GPT-5.2 was Garlic, suggesting the highly-anticipated model is already out. OpenAI may shift focus to product/UX improvements (per Altman's recent comments about "AI-first redesigns") rather than raw model upgrades. Two months is a short window, and OpenAI may need time to recover from the code-red crunch.