Have Claude Sonnet 4.5 model weights leaked before October 2025?
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200Ṁ828Feb 28
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This market resolves YES if credible evidence emerges before March 2026 that the actual model weights for Claude Sonnet 4.5 have been leaked or stolen before October 1, 2025.
Resolution Criteria:
Must be the actual model weights, not just system prompts or API responses
Must be confirmed by credible sources (Anthropic, security firms, or technical verification)
The leaked weights can be anything that reasonably counts as "weights of Claude 4.5 Sonnet" checkpoint, e.g. the released model, base model or some training checkpoint
Resolves early if credible evidence for a leak emerges before the closing date, otherwise resolves No on March 1, 2026
Context:
This market is based on the following tweet by Whizz Taker:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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