
A new open weights reasoning model w/ <= 13B parameters will be released before Jan 1st 2025
4
Ṁ100Ṁ137resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market predicts whether a new open weights AI reasoning model with 13B or fewer parameters, comparable in performance to QwQ and o1-mini, will be released before January 1st, 2025.
Resolution criteria: Official announcement or release of the model by an AI company, with published parameter count and open weights.
References:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ52 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
10% chance
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
45% chance
Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026
28% chance
When will we have an open-weights model on-par with Mythos/Fable
12/3/26
Will the HappyHorse-1.0 weights become publicly available before EOY 2026?
1% chance
Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
23% chance