A new open weights reasoning model w/ <= 13B parameters will be released before Jan 1st 2025
Basic
4
Ṁ137resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market predicts whether a new open weights AI reasoning model with 13B or fewer parameters, comparable in performance to QwQ and o1-mini, will be released before January 1st, 2025.
Resolution criteria: Official announcement or release of the model by an AI company, with published parameter count and open weights.
References:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ52 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 |
Related questions
Related questions
Will Anthropic release a reasoning model before March 2025?
37% chance
OpenAI to release model weights by EOY?
40% chance
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
22% chance
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
48% chance
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
60% chance
An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?
21% chance
Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?
29% chance
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
57% chance
By March 14, 2025, will there be an AI model with over 10 trillion parameters?
12% chance
Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?
35% chance