A new open weights reasoning model w/ <= 13B parameters will be released before Jan 1st 2025
4
100Ṁ137resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market predicts whether a new open weights AI reasoning model with 13B or fewer parameters, comparable in performance to QwQ and o1-mini, will be released before January 1st, 2025.
Resolution criteria: Official announcement or release of the model by an AI company, with published parameter count and open weights.
References:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ52 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Related questions
What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
9% chance
Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025?
84% chance
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
33% chance
Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?
20% chance
Open weight AI system below 100B parameters gets 5/6 on IMO 2026?
31% chance
When will OpenAI release their next open-weight LLM model?
8/5/27
An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?
28% chance
Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
25% chance