Which government will form after the next UK general election?
20
325Ṁ2380
2029
28%
Reform majority
15%
Labour majority
14%
Labour + Liberal Democrats coalition
13%
Labour minority
7%
Reform minority
7%
Conservatives + Reform coalition
6%
Other
5%
Conservatives majority
2%
Labour + Conservatives coalition
1.4%
Conservatives minority
1.2%
Labour + Reform coalition

Resolves at the government formed after the next UK general election. Resolves either "X majority", "X minority", or "X + Y (+ Z)* coalition".

  • Update 2025-09-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Minority government: Means the governing party would need votes from another party to survive a no confidence motion. Calculate this using only voting MPs, i.e., subtract Sinn Fein MPs and the Speaker (who abstain).

    • Coalition naming: The order of parties (e.g., "X + Y" vs "Y + X") is the same and does not imply seniority.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ190 NO

@MarkNicoll @Tetraspace can we get a clarification/ruling here? My understanding of the description is that only answers of the form described are allowed, and that "catch all" answers like this can't resolve YES. (Because of the type of market, this answer would prevent us from adding subcases (like "Labour+Lib Dem+SNP coalition" etc) otherwise.)

Is that the right interpretation, @Tetraspace ?

@Fion yep

@Fion No Coalition has ever required a third party in the UK before. The odds of any specific three parties forming a coalition is so imeasurably small I didn't think anyone would want to add one particular combination let alone all of them.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Is "conservatives + reform coalition" the same as "reform + conservative coalition" or does the first name imply senior partner in the coalition?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Fion while I'm here, what's the definition of "majority" Vs "minority"? Are we subtracting the speaker and any non-sitting Sinn Fein MPs?

@Fion It's the same

@Fion I want "minority government" to mean they'd need votes from some other party to get past a no confidence motion, which I think subtracts Sinn Fein and the Speaker because they will always abstain

@Tetraspace perfect, thanks

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy