Pres. Trump announced today, with regard to the selection of a new Supreme Leader in Iran, that "I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy in Venezuela."

This market is inherently subjective because what does that even mean? So I will not bet on it.

• This market resolves YES if Pres. Trump is "Involved.... like with Delcy" in the appointment of the new Supreme Leader or, in the event of a coup, other chief executive position.

• This market resolves YES if Trump consults or negotiates directly with whoever ultimately selects Iran's next Supreme Leader or other topmost position.

• This market resolves NO if a new Supreme Leader (or other top executive, if Iran's constitutional order fails) is selected via any process that does not involve consultation or negotiation between Trump and some surviving selectorate of the Iranian government, and that leader remains in place for at least three months (after all we have to give folks time to bump off the new guy).

• This market resolves NO if Iran ceases to have a functional state apparatus.

• This market resolves NO if none of the above occur during Trump's term as US president.

• Update 2026-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator believes a new Supreme Leader (Khamenei the Younger) has been appointed as of March 8, without Trump's involvement. The market now hinges on whether this leader survives for three months (until June 8):

  • If he remains in power by June 8 → resolves NO

  • If he does not survive until June 8 → Trump may have another opportunity, keeping the market open