The war will be considered to have ended in 2023 if a ceasefire beginning in 2023 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in 2023. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire.
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Here's a real money June 30th market: https://insightprediction.com/m/120500/will-the-russia-ukraine-war-end-by-june-30th-2023
@DouglasCampbell what are their fees for profits and withdrawals? If I could actually get 24% in 6 months I would buy NO for as much as possible
@JonathanRay also not sure of the counterparty risk of them getting shut down by the US government within the next 6 months
@JonathanRay went through all the trouble of signing up and then they finally tell me I can't deposit from my location!
@JonathanRay FYI, to not get shut down by the US gov't Insight blocks all US IP addresses. That said, for example on many sites a vpn may or may not help.
@JonathanRay Fees on Insight are .075*price*(1-price) per share, where the price is in dollars, when you are the "taker". If you buy at 50 cents its thus .075*.5*.5 which is like less than 2 cents. If you are the "maker", there is actually a subsidy (and no fees) of .025*price*(1-price).
