LessOnline 2025 Prop Bets
30
1.8kṀ4384
Jun 2
87%
3 or more people conspire and manipulate the outcome something in this market
83%
someone runs an RPG
66%
3 concurrent guitarists perform at a jam session
60%
at least 3 people co-author a Substack post
60%
birthday celebration of someone who's birthday occurs within lessonline
55%
vegan samosa are offered to anyone
52%
> 5 games of Blood on the Clocktower
46%
there is a puzzle hunt of some kind
45%
A game of Twister is played
40%
hackathon
37%
Someone with at least 1000 Substack subscribers (including free and/or paid) publishes a piece about LessOnline during the event
18%
it rains
15%
this market will have >=50 submarkets/options
10%
@so8res accepts the gift from krantz (https://manifold.markets/Krantz/nate-soares-so8res-will-wager-at-le?r=S3JhbnR6)
Resolved
YES
someone gets sunburnt
Resolved
YES
at least 3 children in attendance
Resolved
YES
More than 300 profiles listed on WriteHaven
Resolved
YES
More than 500 profiles listed on Writehaven
Resolved
YES
someone pours water on their head

LessOnline (https://less.online/) will take place 2025-05-30 to 2025-06-01 in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the lessonline conference itself and not manifest or Summer Camp.

Add anything that you think would be:

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respects people's privacy

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

i will also resolve based on information i get from my trusted friend @Joshua .

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities.

Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social.

You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.

things that i dont see and where i cant get information from mods, or contradictory info from mods, will be resolved n/a.

since it's the first time i run one of these, i reserve the right to resolve options without thinking too much about it. ill do my best to put the time if i have it, but if i feel overwhelmed i might resolve on gut feeling. you have been warned.

  • Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding an implied prop bet on the number of children at the event:

    • The creator will resolve this to YES if they personally observe what they determine to be a third distinct child.

    • If the creator does not make such an observation, they will seek feedback from people before deciding on the resolution for this specific bet.

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there was 2 people playing guitar with an unused 3rd guitar nearby. so close

bought Ṁ20 YES

@nikthink there were 3 when I left an hour ago.

bought Ṁ270 YES

so I think I've now seen at least 3 different kids. 2 yesterday and one today. How would one try to resolve this?

@Tarl : right now i saw 2 and im unsure if one of them was the one I saw yesterday. will keep my eyes open in case there is another new child, in which case ill resolve yes

if i dont see any more child I'll think more about it and get peoples feedback.

bought Ṁ210 YES

@nikthink now at 3 kids and 1 infant. Feeling pretty sure about this one

i keep seeing children and not being sure if ive seen them before 😆

i always see 2 at a time every time I do my round.

@Tarl : you can come and show them to me if you want ahah. right now im under the stairs on the wooden thing next to bayes house.

ps: im no longer there.

finally! ive definitely seen another child i haven't seen before

@nikthink Looking at my arm / neck this morning… resolves YES.

@TannerNewell : find me im nik, im outside next to the kitchen right now

bought Ṁ30 YES

@nikthink I’ve observed one standard child and two baby children on the premises. Are those children enough?

@TannerNewell : ive only found a baby and a child. will keep my eyes open.

bought Ṁ500 YES

There are now more than 300 profiles on Writehaven

please share this market with friends; as there isnt any great channel to share this with all attendees

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