LessOnline (https://less.online/) will take place 2025-05-30 to 2025-06-01 in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the lessonline conference itself and not manifest or Summer Camp.
Add anything that you think would be:
Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respects people's privacy
I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.
i will also resolve based on information i get from my trusted friend @Joshua .
Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities.
Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social.
You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.
things that i dont see and where i cant get information from mods, or contradictory info from mods, will be resolved n/a.
since it's the first time i run one of these, i reserve the right to resolve options without thinking too much about it. ill do my best to put the time if i have it, but if i feel overwhelmed i might resolve on gut feeling. you have been warned.
Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding an implied prop bet on the number of children at the event:
The creator will resolve this to YES if they personally observe what they determine to be a third distinct child.
If the creator does not make such an observation, they will seek feedback from people before deciding on the resolution for this specific bet.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is seeking information from traders about events related to submarkets, ideally supported by corroborating witnesses.
For most currently unresolved submarkets: if no such information is provided to the creator confirming an event occurred, the creator plans to resolve these to "NO".
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@hamiltonianurst : thanks! ya i do remember talking about duncan's birthday with him, but iirc it lies outside the lo weekend? or at least i haven't heard of a celebration.
@traders : let me know if any thing happened, hopefully with other corroborating witnesses, otherwise I plan to resolve most currently unresolved submarkets to "no"
@WilliamGunn : which day? and where? im pretty sure I didnt see them at the official lunch tables. but if you can find other witnesses I could be convinced
@nikthink The day they served Indian food, which I believe was Friday dinner. They were at the end of the line. That's also the day they ran out and had to order a bunch of pizza 😂
@Tarl : right now i saw 2 and im unsure if one of them was the one I saw yesterday. will keep my eyes open in case there is another new child, in which case ill resolve yes
if i dont see any more child I'll think more about it and get peoples feedback.
@Tarl : you can come and show them to me if you want ahah. right now im under the stairs on the wooden thing next to bayes house.
ps: im no longer there.
@nikthink I’ve observed one standard child and two baby children on the premises. Are those children enough?