LessOnline 2025 Prop Bets
22
1.7kแน€2553
Jun 2
93%
3 or more people conspire and manipulate the outcome something in this market
84%
someone gets sunburnt
83%
someone runs an RPG
77%
this market will have >=50 submarkets/options
66%
at least 3 children in attendance
65%
there is a puzzle hunt of some kind
58%
> 5 games of Blood on the Clocktower
55%
at least 3 people co-author a Substack post
55%
A game of Twister is played
55%
birthday celebration of someone who's birthday occurs within lessonline
50%
@so8res accepts the gift from krantz (https://manifold.markets/Krantz/nate-soares-so8res-will-wager-at-le?r=S3JhbnR6)
50%
vegan samosa are offered to anyone
50%
3 concurrent guitarists perform at a jam session
45%
hackathon
45%
Someone with at least 1000 Substack subscribers (including free and/or paid) publishes a piece about LessOnline during the event
43%
More than 500 profiles listed on Writehaven
20%
it rains
Resolved
YES
More than 300 profiles listed on WriteHaven

LessOnline (https://less.online/) will take place 2025-05-30 to 2025-06-01 in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the lessonline conference itself and not manifest or Summer Camp.

Add anything that you think would be:

  • Fun to predict, might or might not happen

  • Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • Respects people's privacy

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

i will also resolve based on information i get from my trusted friend @Joshua .

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities.

Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social.

You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.

things that i dont see and where i cant get information from mods, or contradictory info from mods, will be resolved n/a.

since it's the first time i run one of these, i reserve the right to resolve options without thinking too much about it. ill do my best to put the time if i have it, but if i feel overwhelmed i might resolve on gut feeling. you have been warned.

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought แน€500 YES

There are now more than 300 profiles on Writehaven

please share this market with friends; as there isnt any great channel to share this with all attendees

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTermsโ€ขPrivacy