Norway Chess 2025 - Prop Bets
47
2.6kṀ27k
resolved Jun 6
Resolved
YES
Magnus loses a classical game
Resolved
NO
Top 3 is Carlsen, Caruana, Nakamura in any order
Resolved
NO
Magnus does not lose any armageddon games
Resolved
YES
Gukesh finishes above Arjun
Resolved
NO
Young player wins the tournament (Gukesh, Arjun, Wei Yi)
Resolved
NO
Magnus loses Elo (starting vs final)
Resolved
YES
Caruana finishes above Hikaru
Resolved
YES
The winner will win exactly 3 classical games
Resolved
YES
Total score of Americans (Caruana, Hikaru) will be higher than total score of Indians (Arjun, Gukesh)
Resolved
YES
Someone loses exactly 3 classical games
Resolved
NO
Every player wins at least one classical game
Resolved
YES
Winner will lose at least one classical game
Resolved
NO
Winner will win have more Armageddon wins than classical wins
Resolved
YES
Caruana gains Elo (starting vs final)
Resolved
NO
Wei Yi finishes in top 3
Resolved
YES
Hikaru finishes in bottom 3
Resolved
NO
Someone will draw all of their classical games
Resolved
YES
Arjun finishes above Wei Yi
Resolved
NO
Five or more rounds will feature only draws in the classsical portion
Resolved
NO
There will be a round with 3 decisive classical games

Norway Chess starts on May 26 and ends on June 6. It will be a double round-robin classical tournament (10 rounds/games total) - everyone plays all opponents twice. If the classical game ends in a draw, players contest an armageddon game. Players will get 3 points for win in classical, 1.5 for win in armageddon, 1 for loss in armageddon and 0 points for loss in classical.

Feel free to add any questions you can think of.

Rule clarifications:

  • Questions are only about Open section of Norway chess unless stated otherwise

  • Unless stated otherwise "highest"/"most"/"least" etc. includes ties ("Player has the most points at the end")

  • Options that refer to final rankings (last, first, top 3, ...) include tiebreaks if there are any. But if there are no tiebreaks, then for example "last" will resolve to YES even if 2 players share the last place.

  • Options that refer to armageddon games include armageddon rules, so if someone draws with black (side with draw odds), it is counted as armageddon win for black side

Market for the winner: https://manifold.markets/Weezing/who-will-win-norway-chess-2025

  • Update 2025-06-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Regarding final ranking ties:

    • Official tiebreaks will be used for rankings if they exist. The creator's research suggests these tiebreaks are defined only for first place in the Open section of Norway Chess.

    • For ranks where no official tiebreaks are defined (e.g., for positions other than first place):

      • If players are tied on points, for example, two players sharing what would be 3rd-4th place:

        • Both players will count as having finished top 3.

        • Both players will also count as having finished bottom 3.

      • This principle of how ties are interpreted for ranking-based options will apply to other similar scenarios.

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Since there is a decent chance some players will be tied in the final rankings, I want to point out rules for options that refer to that. If there are official tiebreaks for rankings we use that, but I only found rules for tiebreaks for the first place and there does not seem to be any tiebreaks for other spots.

If there are no tiebreak rules and for example two players share 3rd-4th place, because they are tied on points, then both will count as if they finished top 3 and also bottom 3. Similarly for other cases.

Note that this is inline with the established rules since the beginning, I just wanted to make it more explicit.

@Weezing Only one such round so far and three rounds left, not happening.

@Weezing All participants have now lost a classical game, so this market can be rosolved yes.

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