resolved Jun 29

Higher = more risk of default

This resolves YES if someone convinces me, by creating a balance sheet, that @Tumbles has to take out a loan to pay a loan, or takes out a loan to manipulate the "default insurance market", or buys mana to pay off a loan. For example: if net worth or balance are both below zero for a non-negligible time.

If the other market resolves NO due to not having a loan for 3 months, resolves NO. If the other market resolves YES due to default, resolves YES.

If the Tumbles account is deleted with outstanding loans, resolves YES.

If Tumbles is ever insolvent for a non-negligible time (networth < loan original amount + gifted mana) resolves YES

If Tumbles is gifted or buys mana for the purpose of avoiding default, obtaining a positive net worth, paying off loans, manipulating markets (including this), resolve YES

Related: Tumbles Default Market

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Tumbles is underwater.

The present value of account is: 432981 Mana

Principal on debts (fixed-rate loans): 25000(Tony)+?(41000 total)(Ammon)+10000(Gabrielle, extended)+2000(Rucker)+20000(QuantumObserver)+10000(EvanDaniel)+20000(Tripping)+138000(total, Ammon) +30000(wisdom)+20000(CharlesLien)=137000 excluding unknown principals

Debts (floating rate): 200000(Wheatley)+100000(Ammon)=300000

Conditional/other debts


Total debts (non-conditional, not including 41000+138000 unknown principal loans)


Gifted mana = 75010 per the shareholders report

By the formula, Tumbles is worth at least 432981–75010-437000 = -79029 Mana. This is not even including the conditional and Ammon debts. (estimated at minimum 120000+)

It is clear Tumbles is in default due to Biden nominee prices dropping to about 73% for a day. This is not a glitch or profit spike. Therefore this market resolves YES.

'tis but a scratch, a mere flesh wound

A fair resolution, but it's only temporarily joever. This is gonna be the biggest "we're so back" yet (though losing 20k on this market doesn't help LOL)

You're fine if Biden is the nominee. If not, the pile of cards comes crashing down

This market is temporarily closed while I evaluate whether Tumbles is solvent.

we're fools for not buying this up throughout the day

I'll be adding this to the tally of mana that doesn't count for this market on the next shareholders report. I have an exam on Friday, I'll do the accounting and post it that night or the following day



A lot has changed with my account in the last 10 days already, so I'm going to do a second shareholders report at the start of March, and make it a monthly thing

@traders Updated rules on how the market resolves YES. Anyone is welcome to make a balance sheet showing Tumbles with a negative net worth at any time to resolve this YES, or proof that Tumbles has failed to repay any loan on time.

In addition, manipulation of net worth through alt accounts is not allowed. However, strategic profit manipulation by correcting markets is perfectly valid

@nikki Would it be fair to say my net worth must be negative for at least 10 hours or so? There have been a few times where troll accounts have tried to tank my net worth while I'm sleeping by mispricing markets, and then my net worth has gone back to normal once I wake up and correct them.

I'm not asking you to write a bunch of specific clauses to handle such a scenario, just checking that my understanding of the spirit of this market is still accurate

I have prepared the Tumbles Financial Complex's first official shareholder's report!

Take a look if you are interested in my account's financials!

bought Ṁ100 NO from 19% to 16%

@Tumbles Not sure how being M48k away from being insolvent on a total net worth of ~M700k is supposed to reassure your creditors - but hey, that's why I'm not a business guy.

@Pykess Hey I mean those are the facts, I didn't make up numbers for reassurance! Note that being insolvent on the Credit Score market isn't the same as being insolvent on the main debt market. I have more than 70k mana that doesn't count for the Credit Score market, and I can buy mana to stay afloat for the main debt market but not for the Credit Score market.

Also, I think one of the real takeaways people can have from the report is that if Biden wins the nomination my debt markets will go down and the election markets will go up, and my net worth will be like 150k higher.

@Tumbles I'm just trying to understand things, since like I said I'm not a business guy. But you'll "only" make M22k from the Biden nomination. And while that's a large absolute amount, it's really not that much in relative terms when about half of your current outstanding loans are more than that amount.

@Tumbles Actually to add on to this, today alone your profit is -66% of this figure, -M14k. So that really makes this M22k number seem small.

@Pykess If Biden wins the nomination it's not just that I make another 22k, it eliminates a potential source of loss. If Biden wins the nomination, AND I sell a large portion of my election shares, AND LK-99 resolves NO, there simply won't be a concentrated source of risk anymore. You could argue that those are big 'if's, but that's the situation. Notably if the first two 'if's about Biden work out how I predict I can survive LK-99 going against me

@Tumbles "Conditional on Biden losing the 2024 Democratic Nomination, will LK-99 be proven to be a room-temperature superconductor?"

@Pykess Also, the math in the report was done when my displayed net worth was 770k. Currently my portfolio displays 800k.

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