Will the Tumbles Financial Complex be declared insolvent, but make a comeback?
Basic
36
Ṁ15k
resolved Jul 29
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if both of these conditions are met:
1. The 'Tumbles Credit Score' market resolves YES
2. The 'Tumbles Creditor Insurance' market resolves NO, or a month has passed after the credit score market has resolved

This market resolves NO if either of those markets resolve the opposite way.

Basically, this market resolves YES if Tumbles would default on his loans, but avoids it by buying mana or getting bailed out.

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Resolves YES, the criteria is clear. Honestly this market was just weird, but it’s done now!

sold Ṁ25 NO

I've changed the title to more accurately reflect the description. It looks unlikely that a YES resolution will come from a bailout, and in retrospect it was probably always a bad title.

Just to check: you will resolve according to the 2-point criteria in the description, right? The market title, and the paragraph starting "Basically, ..." are immaterial?

If your resolution depends on not just the 2-point criteria in the description, but also the market title and the paragraph starting "Basically, ...", then I think you have changed the market resolution criteria.

Previous title:

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex experience a crisis and require a bailout?

After your change on July 4:

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex be declared insolvent, but make a comeback?

My analogy is that Silicon Valley Bank experienced a crisis and required a bailout. But it didn't get a bailout. So it became insolvent and did not make a comeback.

If you are changing the market resolution criteria, then I would like to register my objection.

(But I acknowledge that you may have the right to make changes in unranked personal markets.)

opened a Ṁ150 NO at 75% order

Yeah hmmm I'm a bit confused actually.

I'm assuming this market is simply a function of the two linked markets. The credit score market is already YES. so this market resolves YES if the Insurance market resolves NO, and it resolves YES otherwise.

(There's also the "or a month has passed after the credit score market has resolved" line that's a bit confusing—I don't think this is meant to automatically resolve NO in a few weeks if TUmbles is still paying back people, right? So I'm guessing that's in error?)

@Tumbles any clarifying thoughts?

opened a Ṁ998 YES at 50% order

@Tumbles Resolves YES; else please give clarification.

The Credit Score market resolved YES on 2024-06-29 03:25 UTC.

1 month has now passed.

@6ix The 2000 counts as a gift, and thus doesn't count towards my net worth for the purposes of the credit score market. So if I end up losing enough mana that this 2000 is the only reason I'm able to pay off a debt, this market will resolve YES.

@Tumbles Ahhh, I got excited by the wording. Totally agree with you on the specifics after reading the market description.

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