Every person who wins resolves to 25% (assuming it's 4 people who split it equally, in general we split it).
It's very silly to bet people over 25%. In principle the Fields Medal could be awarded to fewer than four people but that's unlikely.
I will resolve this as soon as I find out and not do any last-minute trading before resolving it.
Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Someone who declines a Fields Medal award will still count as a winner for resolution purposes (as occurred in 2006 with Grigori Perelman).
1,000People are also trading
@DavidBudden Normally 4 people win it, so the winners would get 25% each. No point buying yourself over 25%.
@YaelFormaglio No, I haven't. Could you link to a paper about these things? Or in particular a paper by Cruchet?
I see that traders have a weird obsession with the New Horizons prize, but after tabulating the winners of 8 prizes we have
Jack Thorne - 4
Aleksandr Logunov - 3
Maksym Radziwill, Jacob Tsimerman, Aaron Naber, Karim Adiprasito, Song Sun, John Pardon - 2
42 other people - 1
100% (or 25% on this question) is a very aggressive bet. Are you on the committee?
@Pepe I know, I get lots of free mana from people filling my large 25% limit orders and then selling at lower percentage
@Pepe for some reason I only see Jack Thorne listed once in the New Horizons prize section here, where were you looking?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Prize_in_Mathematics#New_Horizons_in_Mathematics_Prize
EDIT: just realised you meant he won 4 different prizes, not the same prize 4 times 🤦 so instead, which 8 different prizes were you looking at overall?
https://ems.press/content/serial-article-files/10199
These guys picked 11 people and got 2 in 2018 and 2 in 2022.
@rogs No. Their methodology says to look at the winners of about 10 prizes and invitation to speak at ICM.
Prizes: EMS, Bocher, Coxeter-James, Fermat, SAS-TRA Ramanujan, Oswald Veblen, Clay, Wolf, Salem.