I feel that I should make another market on whether Wang, Pardon, Deng, and Tsimerman will be the 4 Fields Medalists.

Hong Wang would be the second Chinese Fields Medalist after ST Yau, the first Chinese passport holder, the third ethnic Chinese after ST Yau and Terry Tao, the third woman Fields Medalist, and the first Chinese woman.

John Pardon would be the first US-born and US-raised Fields Medalist since Curtis McMullen in 1998.

Jacob Tsimerman would be the second Israeli Fields Medalist after Lindenstrauss and the second Canadian after Bhargava.

Yu Deng would also be the second Chinese Fields Medalist, the first Chinese passport holder, and the third ethnic Chinese.

Seems like a giant loss for Europe and perhaps the first time in a while that no Europeans will win the Fields Medal. Tsimerman was born in Russia but raised in Canada and Israel. I don't know if he has a Russian passport but I doubt it.

These 4 people also got their PhDs from MIT, Stanford, Princeton, and Princeton respectively. Big win for the US I guess.

@nathanwei John Pardon undergrad at Princeton too btw

Jocob Tsimerman

Also I noticed that the chance of Jacob Tsimerman got lowered a lot, is it because mathematicians found flaws in his proof of André–Oort conjecture?

Other than Wang and Jacob Tsimerman, who are the main contenders?

@AUTOMATA Yu Deng for his contributions to Hilbert's Sixth Problem

@AUTOMATA also just noticed a recent rise of John Pardon, but I can't find his breakthrough work yet.

Also, since nobody else answered my question, I did some search myself.

Hong Wang proved the Kakeya set conjecture with the collaboration of Joshua Zahl.

Jacob Tsimerman proved the André–Oort conjecture.

@k1234567890y It’s well known that Hong Wang was the driving force behind Kakeya. Zahl is good too but Wang is better.

@nathanwei thanks for telling

I decided to show at least what Hong Wang and Jacob Tsimerman had done so that people would have some concepts about them before making predictions.

Why are some options over 25%? That's not how the market works.

who is Xian-Jin Li

@CuiqingLi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li's_criterion

I want to ask

What have the Fields-worthy achievements each of the proposed mathematician has done?

If someone is over 25% and you bet no it’s literally free money

@nathanwei They don't have to give out 4, although they have for the last 5 times.
Then again, it's not guaranteed that Wang and Tsimerman will get it, even if it does seem pretty likely.

@DanielTilkin I think it’s practically guaranteed (95%) that Wang will get it in either 2026 or 2030, but I think about 65% for 2026 and 30% for 2030. Viazovska didn’t get it until the last time she was eligible either.