Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?
6
310Ṁ16182030
27%
25%
Will Sawin
17%
Alex Smith
8%
Jeremy Hahn
7%
Dor Minzer
5%
Ewain Gwynne
4%
Amol Aggarwal
3%
Hong Wang
1.2%
Marcelo Campos
Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners. Probability mass is distributed evenly among all winners. This will resolve to the real name of the winners, nothing else. If someone puts a duplicate option, it will resolve to the first option.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
68% chance
Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?
Who Will Win the 2030 National Championship?
Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?
6% chance
Who will win Ballon d'Or in 2030?
What country will win the most medals at the Olympic Esports Games 2025?
Which team will win the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
Which country or countries will be awarded the 2036 Summer Olympics
Who Will Win an Individual Gold Medal at the 2028 Olympic Games?