Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?
30
Ṁ435Ṁ8.7k2030
42%
19%
Will Sawin
7%
Amol Aggarwal
6%
Jeremy Hahn
6%
Alex Smith
5%
Ewain Gwynne
3%
Ruixiang Zhang
3%
Alexander Dunn
2%
Hong Wang
2%
Dor Minzer
1.1%
Cristiana De Filippis
Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners. Probability mass is distributed evenly among all winners. This will resolve to the real name of the winners, nothing else. If someone puts a duplicate option, it will resolve to the first option.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?
Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?
Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?
1% chance
Who will win Gold in the 100 metres at the 2032 Summer Olympics?
Will Jared Duker Lichtman earn a Fields Medal before 2034?
5% chance
Which team will win the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
What country will win the most medals at the Olympic Esports Games 2027?
Which country or countries will be awarded the 2036 Summer Olympics
Who Will Win an Individual Gold Medal at the 2028 Olympic Games?
Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]