Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if exactly four humans, and no other parties, are officially awarded the Fields Medal in the calendar year 2030. It resolves to NO if this is not the case (in the calendar year 2030) for any reason. For example, this market will resolve NO if any AI model is awarded the medal in 2030, or if no medals are awarded in 2030.

Background

The Fields Medal is awarded every four years by the International Mathematical Union (IMU) during the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM). According to the IMU statutes, the selection committee is instructed to choose at least two and no more than four Fields Medalists under the age of 40, with a strong preference for awarding exactly four medals. The 31st International Congress of Mathematicians is scheduled to take place in July/August 2030.