What will be the first ten countries to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
Mini
38
1.4k
2300
86%
China
69%
South Korea
66%
Japan
65%
Singapore
62%
Israel
50%
UAE
50%
Taiwan
50%
Mexico
48%
Canada
47%
Denmark
47%
Saudi Arabia
45%
Estonia
41%
USA
40%
El Salvador
39%
India
38%
Thailand
35%
France
28%
Brazil
27%
Germany
14%
UK

Resolution criteria similar to the relevant Metaculus questions:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?has_group=false&main-feed=true&order_by=-rank&search=embryo%20selection

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9785/10-embryo-selection-for-iq-when/

"[X country is one of the first ten countries] with over a million people [that] has more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence within a single calendar year, according to credible reports.

Moreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence."

"10% of its newborns" means all newborns born in the country, not just citizens.

For arbitrage purposes, there are some markets already for some countries. These markets all have corresponding questions on Metaculus as well, which are linked in the description. Note that because of ties, more than 10 of these markets could resolve yes.

Israel: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-israel-be-one-of-the-first-ten
Singapore: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-singapore-be-one-of-the-first
India: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-india-be-one-of-the-first-ten
China: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-be-one-of-the-first-ten
USA: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-the-usa-be-one-of-the-first-te
EU member states: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-european-union-member-state

I will not bet in this market.

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