Resolution criteria similar to the relevant Metaculus questions:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?has_group=false&main-feed=true&order_by=-rank&search=embryo%20selection

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9785/10-embryo-selection-for-iq-when/

"[X country is the first country] with over a million people [that] has more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence within a single calendar year, according to credible reports.

Moreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence."

"10% of its newborns" means all newborns born in the country, not just citizens. If there is a tie between some countries, it resolves to "other" unless that specific set of countries is an option, in which case it resolves there.

For arbitrage purposes, there are some markets already for some countries, albeit with a different tie-breaking procedure. For these markets all countries that tie for first resolve as yes. These markets all have corresponding questions on Metaculus as well, which are linked in the description.

Israel: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-israel-be-the-first-country-to
USA: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-the-usa-be-the-first-country-t
China: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-be-the-first-country-to
Singapore: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-singapore-be-the-first-country

I will not bet in this market.