In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
In a year, will I think that risk of AI apocalypse is between 1 and 10%?
Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?
In the 2022 EA survey, what % of EAs select "AI Risk" as top cause?
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?
HumanEval 90% #1: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2024?
Will 'Effective Altruism' reach 50% of previous US Google Trends peak in 2023?
Will a religion that has some AI as its god, oracle or priest have at least 1 million churchgoers before 2051?
Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of people's workflows in developed nations by 2027
In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030
Will 30% of video game players be using a VR headset of some sort to play video games by 2030?
Will AI come up with a 99.99 percentile quintilizer for most perceptive people in the planet by 2030
What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?
Will more than 10% of US young men have tried an "AI girlfriend" by end of 2024.
Levi Finkelstein [BANNED]
In 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Will 50%+ of the content in my work emails be written by AI by end of 2025?