Will it be confirmed that Eliezer Yudkowsky is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?

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resolved May 4

Resolved

N/A

ALL

I was given three attempts to guess who is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account

Close date updated to 2022-12-21 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2023-02-02 12:59 am

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Qualy the Lightbulb

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@ForrestTaylor Huh?

predictedNO

why did this close?

@samb The close time was today

I mean, four bits of information would make this the leading hypothesis, right

And @Qualy - the only known lightbulb trader on these markets - holds a Yes position! How many bits of information is that?

predictedNO

@ms What's P(Qualy holds a Yes position|EY is involved with the account) and P(Qualy holds a Yes position|EY is not involved with the account)?

@rockenots did Eliezer pay you to say that

predictedNO

@ms_test I refuse to confirm or deny.

how does this resolve if you don't get an answer?

@Lauro N/A though I have three guesses https://twitter.com/frances__lorenz/status/1598345934215282688?s=20&t=ClOJbQ9mAedrxSYRe5INEQ

predictedNO

@ms ah excellent

Will it be confirmed that Eliezer Yudkowsky is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition