This market refers to this event:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026#Candidates_Tournament
An option resolves YES if a player wins the event and NO otherwise. If they do not participate, their option resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2026, I will adjust the resolution date until the end of the tournament.
I have added all of the players who currently (as of May 7, 2024) have a live classical chess rating >= 2700. No additional players will be added. The market resolves 'Other' if a player not on this list wins the event.
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@SentientTree Sindarov will be the highest rated of those 3. If Sindarov is at 5-6%, are you putting the other two under "Other" at 4-5%, to get to "Other" at 15%?
I'm saying Sindarov 5-6% that he makes candidates and wins it. That's like 60% that he makes it, 9% that he wins given that he makes it.
I'd break down the 15% as follows:
Sindarov 5-6%
Bluebaum 4-5%
Yakubboev 3-4%
Esipenko 1-2%
Shankland 1-2%
Martinez 0.5-1%
Donchenko <0.5%
@SentientTree There is also a chance that the Arjun/Wei winner ends up 4th in the WC and "Other" encompasses 4/8 candidates, but that is admittedly unlikely