Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?
Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?
18
1.4kṀ28512027
15%
Fabiano Caruana
14%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
8%
Alireza Firouzja
8%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
7%
Hikaru Nakamura
6%
Praggnanandhaa R
6%
Arjun Erigaisi
5%
Magnus Carlsen
3%
Gukesh D
2%
Wei Yi
1.9%
Other
1.8%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
1.8%
Vidit Santosh Gujrathi
1.8%
Ding Liren
1.1%
Daniil Dubov
1.1%
Wang Hao
1%
Anish Giri
This market refers to this event:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026#Candidates_Tournament
An option resolves YES if a player wins the event and NO otherwise. If they do not participate, their option resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2026, I will adjust the resolution date until the end of the tournament.
I have added all of the players who currently (as of May 7, 2024) have a live classical chess rating >= 2700. No additional players will be added. The market resolves 'Other' if a player not on this list wins the event.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.