Which of these chess openings will be played in the Candidates?

Question

The market refers to the 2026 Candidates tournament, occuring between March 28 and April 16, to decide the challenger to the world chess championship. Which of these openings will be played in the tournament? Please write a comment below if you have any suggestions.

I will use my best judgement to resolve in case there is any ambiguity. In general, transpositions count towards an opening, e.g. 1. d4 e6 2. Nc3 d5 3. e4 will count as a French Defense (Paulsen variation) even though it uses an unconventional move order with 1.d4.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Sicilian Wing Gambit (1.e4 c5 2.b4), followed by Elephant Gambit (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 d5) and Blackmar-Diemer Gambit (1.d4 d5 2.e4 dxe4 3.Nc3) are most likely. See the market for live updates (18 traders, as of Mar 29, 2026).