What will happen in 2026 related to AI?
6
425Ṁ2882026
83%
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.
66%
SSI will release a product
66%
I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning
56%
Nvidia will outperform the S&P
50%
I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.
50%
Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP
50%
The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.
50%
An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters
50%
The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china
50%
The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked
50%
There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies
34%
OpenAI IPO
34%
Anthropic IPO
34%
One of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy
34%
There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive
25%
An LLM will beat me at chess
10%
I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting
Please add questions for what will happen in 2026 related to AI! I've added some clarifications below. If there is ambiguity I will resolve to my best judgement.
Clarifications
"SSI will release a product": It should be generally available in 2026; i.e. no waitlist.
"Nvidia will outperform the S&P": As measured at the end of the year. It's not sufficient for Nvidia to outperform at some point in the year.
"An LLM will beat me at chess": See this market:
“Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP” : according to this source or some other official announcement by the org.
"The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours": At 50% success rate, acoording to this source.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
By 2026 will there be autonomous AI good enough that I use it?
65% chance
What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
12% chance
Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
6% chance
In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks?
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
26% chance