Will more than 100 Tesla semis be on the road before July 2023?
36
163
740
resolved Jun 30
Resolved
NO

Resolves to YES if more than 100 electric-powered Tesla Semi trucks are on the road before July 1st 2023.

Tesla Semi trucks that use diesel or hydrogen engines will not count.

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bought Ṁ44 of NO

I thought there had been a second delivery batch

https://electrek.co/2023/04/12/tesla-delivers-fleet-tesla-semi-electric-trucks-pepsico

"Tesla has delivered a new fleet of up to 21 Tesla Semi electric trucks to PepsiCo as the automaker slowly ramps up the much-delayed vehicle program."

But looking further

"The company confirmed that it is using 15 Tesla Semi trucks at its Modesto facility, and now up to 21 trucks are going to operate from the Sacramento plant."

So that appears it could well still be the original delivery batch of 36 but just differently located now.

If there is only 36 delivered Dec and none in 6 months since, another batch of 36 this month might be hard to rule out as impossible but 2 such batches or one of 65+ seems unlikely.

bought Ṁ150 of NO

I have been unable to find evidence that shows this question resolving as "YES." There's about one month left.

If you can find some solid evidence that there are more than 100 Tesla semis on the road before July 2023, you can make a lot of Mana here.

predicted NO

It looks like Tesla has shipped maybe 36 semis to Pepsi.

I don't think they'll crack 100.

How will 'on the road' be defined? I think about how media networks will buy up copies of their stars' books to inflate the sales numbers - they were bought, but not to be read.

predicted NO

@512yinz That's a really good question. I think if Pepsi receives the 100 Semis that it has ordered (https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-says-pepsico-take-delivery-tesla-semi-electric-trucks-dec-1-2022-10-07/) before July 1st 2023, then this resolves as YES.

Since there is so much hype and the two parties to the transaction are so invested in the PR, I imagine that we'll hear about it if they have 100 Tesla Semis on the road.

If it's hard to find good information after the close date, the resolution of the question may take a while. If I can't find good information about this, I may have to N/A the question. (I'd really prefer it if I could avoid that, of course.)

predicted NO

@mr22222222 If they are fully registered and ready to legally drive on a public road (have a number plate basically) that would reasonably meet the criteria right? But if built, parked in a Tesla parking lot and awaiting registration, even if fully driveable it would not?

predicted NO

@NiklasWiklander I mean, there should be a criteria that is easily checked somehow. Registrations are public info?