Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2023-12-31.
Not to be a killjoy but isn't it unethical to bet one a guy dying? This is mainly a theoretical consideration since Manifold is ~800 people trading fake internet points but in theory this question would incentivize traders to bet against the market and then try to murder SBF and have the market resolve in their favor.
Wouldn't that be a problem for platforms that allow real money trading, like metaculus?
@Schwabilismus yes I think there is a restriction on making markets like this for anyone but extremely famous people or politicians... it's been discussed a bunch on the discord but I don't know the actual status.
@StrayClimb I see I need to join the discord.
@Schwabilismus Yeah the common term is "assassination market" and it's a known 'feature' of prediction markets; congrats on independently inventing it though :)
Will SBF be dead before the end of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition