Will SBF be dead before the end of 2023?
closes Dec 31

Resolves to yes if some reputable news source confirmed Sam Bankman-Fried's death on or before 2023-12-31.

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Schwabilismus avatar

Not to be a killjoy but isn't it unethical to bet one a guy dying? This is mainly a theoretical consideration since Manifold is ~800 people trading fake internet points but in theory this question would incentivize traders to bet against the market and then try to murder SBF and have the market resolve in their favor.

Wouldn't that be a problem for platforms that allow real money trading, like metaculus?

StrayClimb avatar

@Schwabilismus yes I think there is a restriction on making markets like this for anyone but extremely famous people or politicians... it's been discussed a bunch on the discord but I don't know the actual status.

Schwabilismus avatar

@StrayClimb I see I need to join the discord.

BenjaminCosman avatar
Benjamin Cosmanis predicting NO at 6%

@Schwabilismus Yeah the common term is "assassination market" and it's a known 'feature' of prediction markets; congrats on independently inventing it though :)

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡
morewings avatar
morewingsbought Ṁ5 of NO


ManifoldDream avatar

Will SBF be dead before the end of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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