The other companion to my Evil Hangman market: https://manifold.markets/moobunny/manifold-plays-evil-hangman
How many wrong guesses will have happened by the time the Evil Hangman game finishes? A "wrong guess" is a guess of a letter that doesn't appear in the word. (I.e., one which resolves NO when guessed.)
I will not bet on this market. There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
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I ran out of mana so I will just share my thoughts: the first five entries: '<=1 ' to '<=5', are straight up impossible to be true, meaning 0 probabilities, according to math. After the first wrong guess, answer space guaranteed to be greater or equal than 50, after the second wrong guess, answer space greater or equal tan 25, ... 13 ..., 7, 4, 2, 1. Therefore, there will be at least 6 wrong guesses.
@marvingardens My first instinct is that N/A would be fairer in those cases, but I suppose we can deal with that when we get there.
@KarlWang Guys, I just realized my logic is unsound, the positions of the letters also matter, meaning a 40 percent No can win over other Yes brackets.