Okay, I've dragged my feet making this long enough: it's time to play EVIL Hangman!
Current progress: D I N I N G
Wrong guesses: T A M E U
How this works: Each day, at around 2 PM Pacific Time, I'll check which letter has the highest %; that letter will be the players' guess for that day. I'll reveal all the places that letter appears in the word, if any, and resolve that letter to YES if it appears in the word and NO if it doesn't. Easy enough?
The EVIL Twist: The word isn't decided ahead of time. Instead, I've randomly chosen - subject to some constraints - a list of one hundred six-letter English words which are possible answers. When I reveal information and resolve letters, it will be in the way that reveals the least information about the final answer - that is, it will be in the way that rules out the fewest remaining words on the list.
Once all the letters in the word have been guessed and revealed, every remaining letter will resolve according to whether that letter is in the word.
This market is unranked because the outcome depends on the betting. Obviously, I won't be betting on this market.
Have fun!
Linked markets:
Guess the winning word and win a prize! https://manifold.markets/moobunny/what-will-the-winning-evil-hangman
How many wrong guesses will there be? https://manifold.markets/moobunny/how-many-wrong-guesses-will-there-b
Word list precommitment (SHA-256): 0386338504cdb6e0c3d27c267a84044b4fcc93b9157cdb14e6c6351c96456a92
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ657 | |
| 2 | Ṁ149 | |
| 3 | Ṁ143 | |
| 4 | Ṁ107 | |
| 5 | Ṁ92 |
This was the precommit text:
Manifold Evil Hangman #1 precommitment
Time: 2:28 PM, 1/13/2026
Random bytes: 9a 6e 4d 57 f0 a8 e8 7d b9 fb 03 b8 ce 76 33 46 ad f9 5a ff
Word list:
absent
acting
allied
alpine
anyone
arabic
arctic
assure
barely
barrel
basics
bodies
border
castle
cement
chubby
cinema
circus
clinic
crafts
deputy
dialog
dining
engage
essays
estate
fields
finder
flavor
gather
hammer
hebrew
hosted
hourly
immune
income
inkjet
inputs
joined
kidney
killed
korean
laptop
leader
legend
locate
mailed
makeup
mental
meters
mighty
moment
murder
museum
origin
packet
parade
phases
pillow
placed
postal
prints
prison
rapids
reduce
remind
result
riding
router
runner
scores
season
serial
should
sleeps
solely
stamps
stones
stores
strong
struck
subtle
suffer
sunday
tested
throws
travel
tribes
troops
tuning
unions
voters
voyuer
waiver
wallet
warned
warren
weblog
wheels
writer
@moobunny I cannot reproduce your SHA256 hash. I tried this:
```
$ head /tmp/mani2.txt
Manifold Evil Hangman #1 precommitment
Time: 2:28 PM, 1/13/2026
Random bytes: 9a 6e 4d 57 f0 a8 e8 7d b9 fb 03 b8 ce 76 33 46 ad f9 5a ff
Word list:
absent
acting
allied
alpine
anyone
arabic
$ tail -n 2 /tmp/mani2.txt
wheels
writer
$ sha256sum /tmp/mani2.txt
3216d56b00945d36d932e59d9ea5afa62aaced522c9baad52b39606aba264aba /tmp/mani2.txt
```
I also tried Windows newlines and/or stripping the trailing newline, but no luck:
```
>>> import hashlib
>>> h = hashlib.sha256(); h.update(open("/tmp/mani2.txt", "rb").read().replace(b"\n", b"\r\n").strip()); h.hexdigest()
'a8e74afb3d28aabd8d666c6ea312b281cf21036c07e41ced32284cdcb2a505ac'
>>> h = hashlib.sha256(); h.update(open("/tmp/mani2.txt", "rb").read().replace(b"\n", b"\r\n")); h.hexdigest()
'278f5c9d201bec5d0269e2620b861c344d6fba8b2db1f3680ba59b9dfb13223e'
>>> h = hashlib.sha256(); h.update(open("/tmp/mani2.txt", "rb").read().strip()); h.hexdigest()
'5b35f4bbc5b9e4c43b547028dedafd7119c43ce0363b2f4355a6c6b6bbafb438'
>>> h = hashlib.sha256(); h.update(open("/tmp/mani2.txt", "rb").read()); h.hexdigest()
'3216d56b00945d36d932e59d9ea5afa62aaced522c9baad52b39606aba264aba'
```
@vee I was doing it using Notepad++; I was able to replicate it with https://emn178.github.io/online-tools/sha256.html
but only via uploading the file rather than pasting it. I’m not sure what difference it’s picking up on there?
@vee Sorry, I’m away from my computer and will be for a day or two—hence my wanting to resolve early. I’ll do so when I can.
@vee Here's the base64: 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
@moobunny (And I checked that on my machine it decodes into a file which yields the right hash with the web tool above)
https://manifold.markets/moobunny/what-will-the-winning-evil-hangman someone guess dining here. you have a good chance of winning 500 mana for yourself!
@moobunny Confusingly, there are two tags that show up as "Unranked":
https://manifold.markets/topic/unranked
https://manifold.markets/topic/nonpredictive
@moobunny should be fixed now (the ranking of the 3 markets). yeah the tag works funny, and IIRC there's a real unranked tag and a fake one, probs needs to be fixed
@Ziddletwix Thank you very much!
It’s also confusing that it’s shown in info with a ✅ emoji, because it looks toggleable but isn’t.
