MANIFOLD
Manifold plays EVIL Hangman!
21
Ṁ2.6kṀ10k
resolved Jan 23
Resolved
NO
A
Resolved
NO
B
Resolved
NO
C
Resolved
YES
D
Resolved
NO
E
Resolved
NO
F
Resolved
YES
G
Resolved
NO
H
Resolved
YES
I
Resolved
NO
J
Resolved
NO
K
Resolved
NO
L
Resolved
NO
M
Resolved
YES
N
Resolved
NO
O
Resolved
NO
P
Resolved
NO
Q
Resolved
NO
R
Resolved
NO
S
Resolved
NO
T

Okay, I've dragged my feet making this long enough: it's time to play EVIL Hangman!

Current progress: D I N I N G

Wrong guesses: T A M E U


How this works: Each day, at around 2 PM Pacific Time, I'll check which letter has the highest %; that letter will be the players' guess for that day. I'll reveal all the places that letter appears in the word, if any, and resolve that letter to YES if it appears in the word and NO if it doesn't. Easy enough?

The EVIL Twist: The word isn't decided ahead of time. Instead, I've randomly chosen - subject to some constraints - a list of one hundred six-letter English words which are possible answers. When I reveal information and resolve letters, it will be in the way that reveals the least information about the final answer - that is, it will be in the way that rules out the fewest remaining words on the list.

Once all the letters in the word have been guessed and revealed, every remaining letter will resolve according to whether that letter is in the word.

This market is unranked because the outcome depends on the betting. Obviously, I won't be betting on this market.

Have fun!

Linked markets:

Guess the winning word and win a prize! https://manifold.markets/moobunny/what-will-the-winning-evil-hangman

How many wrong guesses will there be? https://manifold.markets/moobunny/how-many-wrong-guesses-will-there-b

Word list precommitment (SHA-256): 0386338504cdb6e0c3d27c267a84044b4fcc93b9157cdb14e6c6351c96456a92

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

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The final guess is D, which is correct! The word is "dining" and all markets have been resolved accordingly. I'm surprised it was this quick!

This was the precommit text:

Manifold Evil Hangman #1 precommitment

Time: 2:28 PM, 1/13/2026

Random bytes: 9a 6e 4d 57 f0 a8 e8 7d b9 fb 03 b8 ce 76 33 46 ad f9 5a ff

Word list:

absent

acting

allied

alpine

anyone

arabic

arctic

assure

barely

barrel

basics

bodies

border

castle

cement

chubby

cinema

circus

clinic

crafts

deputy

dialog

dining

engage

essays

estate

fields

finder

flavor

gather

hammer

hebrew

hosted

hourly

immune

income

inkjet

inputs

joined

kidney

killed

korean

laptop

leader

legend

locate

mailed

makeup

mental

meters

mighty

moment

murder

museum

origin

packet

parade

phases

pillow

placed

postal

prints

prison

rapids

reduce

remind

result

riding

router

runner

scores

season

serial

should

sleeps

solely

stamps

stones

stores

strong

struck

subtle

suffer

sunday

tested

throws

travel

tribes

troops

tuning

unions

voters

voyuer

waiver

wallet

warned

warren

weblog

wheels

writer

@moobunny I cannot reproduce your SHA256 hash. I tried this:

```
$ head /tmp/mani2.txt

Manifold Evil Hangman #1 precommitment

Time: 2:28 PM, 1/13/2026

Random bytes: 9a 6e 4d 57 f0 a8 e8 7d b9 fb 03 b8 ce 76 33 46 ad f9 5a ff

Word list:

absent

acting

allied

alpine

anyone

arabic

$ tail -n 2 /tmp/mani2.txt

wheels

writer
$ sha256sum /tmp/mani2.txt

3216d56b00945d36d932e59d9ea5afa62aaced522c9baad52b39606aba264aba /tmp/mani2.txt
```

I also tried Windows newlines and/or stripping the trailing newline, but no luck:

```
>>> import hashlib

>>> h = hashlib.sha256(); h.update(open("/tmp/mani2.txt", "rb").read().replace(b"\n", b"\r\n").strip()); h.hexdigest()

'a8e74afb3d28aabd8d666c6ea312b281cf21036c07e41ced32284cdcb2a505ac'

>>> h = hashlib.sha256(); h.update(open("/tmp/mani2.txt", "rb").read().replace(b"\n", b"\r\n")); h.hexdigest()

'278f5c9d201bec5d0269e2620b861c344d6fba8b2db1f3680ba59b9dfb13223e'

>>> h = hashlib.sha256(); h.update(open("/tmp/mani2.txt", "rb").read().strip()); h.hexdigest()

'5b35f4bbc5b9e4c43b547028dedafd7119c43ce0363b2f4355a6c6b6bbafb438'

>>> h = hashlib.sha256(); h.update(open("/tmp/mani2.txt", "rb").read()); h.hexdigest()

'3216d56b00945d36d932e59d9ea5afa62aaced522c9baad52b39606aba264aba'

```

@vee I was doing it using Notepad++; I was able to replicate it with https://emn178.github.io/online-tools/sha256.html

but only via uploading the file rather than pasting it. I’m not sure what difference it’s picking up on there?

@moobunny could you upload the file directly somewhere, or post it base64-ed here?

@vee Sorry, I’m away from my computer and will be for a day or two—hence my wanting to resolve early. I’ll do so when I can.

@vee Here's the base64: 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

@moobunny (And I checked that on my machine it decodes into a file which yields the right hash with the web tool above)

@moobunny Got it. The issue was an extra space at the end of the "Random bytes" line.

@vee oh good! but why would pasting here mangle that…?

Thanks for checking!

@moobunny 🤷

Going to do today’s guess a couple hours early on account of my schedule today.

The eighth guess is G, which is correct! _ I N I NG

The seventh guess is N, which is correct! There are two N's in the word: _ I N I N _

The sixth guess is I, which is correct! There are two I's in the word: _ I _ I _ _

I and O are undervalued. How many words are devoid of vowels? Probably less than 5 percent. Combined with the estimation of five-ish remaining words (high collision and high variance), One of them almost certainly will hit

The fifth guess is U, which is wrong!

According to market info, the market is still ranked.

@mods I don't seem to be able to change this? I thought the tag was enough.

Please update the other two linked markets as well.

@4fa what

Thank you for pointing that out!

@moobunny should be fixed now (the ranking of the 3 markets). yeah the tag works funny, and IIRC there's a real unranked tag and a fake one, probs needs to be fixed

@Ziddletwix Thank you very much!

It’s also confusing that it’s shown in info with a ✅ emoji, because it looks toggleable but isn’t.

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