Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2100 (12:00 AM UTC), the prediction market platform Manifold (currently located at manifold.markets) permanently shuts down. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2100.

"Permanently shut down" is defined by meeting at least one of the following conditions:

• The platform's parent company (Manifold Markets, Inc. or its corporate successor) formally dissolves, goes bankrupt, or liquidates, and the prediction market platform ceases operations with no successor platform taking its place.

• The platform's web domain and services remain entirely offline or non-functional for a continuous period of at least 12 consecutive months, with no official public statement from the operators indicating an intent to resume service.

• The operators of Manifold release an official, definitive announcement stating that the platform is closing permanently, and the site subsequently ceases to allow new users, market creation, or trading.

Edge Cases & Clarifications:

• Rebranding/Acquisition: If Manifold is acquired, merged, or rebranded (e.g., changing its name or domain), but continues to operate a prediction market service, this does not constitute a permanent shutdown (resolves NO).

• Open Source / Community Takeovers: If the official company shuts down the primary hosted service but the community hosts an independent, open-source fork, this market will still resolve to YES if the official hosted version operated by the company or its direct corporate acquirers has permanently ceased.

• If the platform is online and operational as of December 31, 2099, at 11:59 PM UTC, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

Manifold (formerly Manifold Markets), founded in 2021, is a popular social prediction market platform that utilizes a play-money currency called "Mana" (Ṁ). While the platform has undergone various feature and monetization pivots over the years—such as introducing and later sunsetting sweepstakes cash prizes—it remains a prominent hub for user-created forecasting. Since tech startups historically face high rates of pivot, acquisition, or failure, traders frequently speculate on the long-term viability and regulatory compliance of play-money prediction platforms.

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