This question will resolve as Yes if the United States federal government enacts a law or executive order, after December 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2027, which introduces at least one new AI safety requirement on any private entity developing or deploying AI models.

For purposes of this question, an “AI safety requirement” is a requirement intended to prevent material harm from an AI system’s general capabilities or misuse potential, such as mandated risk assessments, safety evaluations, red-teaming, incident reporting, deployment constraints, or access controls. Such requirements count only if they are imposed on the basis of the model’s general capability level (or its classification as a general-purpose model), rather than on the basis of a specific application, audience, or content category. They do not include requirements about privacy, copyright, or federal procurement.

Fine Print

"Private entity" is defined as "any person or private group, organization, proprietorship, partnership, trust, cooperative, corporation, or other commercial or nonprofit entity, including an officer, employee, or agent thereof." It does not include governments, government agencies or departments, or foreign powers.

An example of an executive order that would count is EO 14110 signed October 30, 2023, which (among other things) ordered the Secretary of Commerce to require developers of certain advanced AI models to conduct red-teaming tests "to enable deployment of safe, secure, and trustworthy systems."

An example of an EO that would not count is Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence signed December 11, 2025, which does not introduce new AI safety requirements on the developers or deployers of AI models and instead says, "To win, United States AI companies must be free to innovate without cumbersome regulation." Another that would not count is EO 13960, signed December 3, 2020, because it specifically imposes requirements on government agencies but imposes no new requirements on private entities developing or deploying AI models.

An executive order is defined as any presidential document with an executive order number published in the Federal Register. Orders that do not have such a number, such as administrative orders or presidential proclamations, will not count for this question.

From Metaculus:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41193/i-safety-law-enacted-in-the-us-in-2026/

I will not trade in my market. I doubt I will trade in the Metaculus one but if I do I'll update this description.