[Metaculus] Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?
19
370
Jan 2
26%
chance

Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Yahya Sinwar has either stepped down or been replaced as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip, been captured by Israel, or that he has died. The question will resolve as No if he continuously holds his position or if there is no reporting indicating a change in status.


This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Sort by:
Panfilo avatar
Panfilobought Ṁ0 of YES

Panfilo avatar
Panfilobought Ṁ20 of YES

If he’s actually in north Gaza, 50 days seems like plenty of time to capture or kill him.