Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, after July 17, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.