This market predicts whether the H5N1 avian influenza virus will mutate to enable efficient human-to-human transmission by June 1st, 2027. Resolution will be based on official reports from the World Health Organization (WHO). WHO Avian Influenza Updates
Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified the definition of 'easy' or 'efficient' transmission. The virus acquiring such capability will be characterized by:
Transmission in a way similar to SARS-CoV-2.
Transmission modes potentially including airborne, respiratory droplets, and/or aerosols.
Possible spread through surface fomites (potentially more efficiently than SARS-CoV-2).
The R0 (basic reproduction number) must be > 1.
This determination of 'easy' or 'efficient' transmission, incorporating these characteristics, must be made by a health entity outside the US, such as WHO.