This market predicts whether the H5N1 avian influenza virus will mutate to enable efficient human-to-human transmission by June 1st, 2027. Resolution will be based on official reports from the World Health Organization (WHO). WHO Avian Influenza Updates
Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified the definition of 'easy' or 'efficient' transmission. The virus acquiring such capability will be characterized by:
Transmission in a way similar to SARS-CoV-2.
Transmission modes potentially including airborne, respiratory droplets, and/or aerosols.
Possible spread through surface fomites (potentially more efficiently than SARS-CoV-2).
The R0 (basic reproduction number) must be > 1.
This determination of 'easy' or 'efficient' transmission, incorporating these characteristics, must be made by a health entity outside the US, such as WHO.
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@MachiNi The R0 must be more than one (each new case spreading the virus to more than 1 other person.)
The virus will transmit in a way similar to SARS-COV-2 and/or through surface fomites. This might be officially defined as through airborne, respiratory droplets, and/or aerosols. It may spread through fomites on surfaces much more efficiently than SARS-COV-2 does.
There may be the kind of initial confusion that there was in 2020 over the exact definition of 'airborne" and "aerosol."
This must be a definition/decision made by a health entity outside the US, such as WHO. The CDC/NIH may or may not make this decision.
The cases will begin to double over a shorter and shorter period of days. However, this might not be officially confirmed until after June 1, 2027, so I am not including it in the official criteria.
All of this criteria may or may not be retrospectively defined as having actually begun long before the 2 year mark.