H5N1 virus acquires human-to-human easy transmission capability by June 1st, 2027
8
1kṀ3235
2026
20%
chance

This market predicts whether the H5N1 avian influenza virus will mutate to enable efficient human-to-human transmission by June 1st, 2027. Resolution will be based on official reports from the World Health Organization (WHO). WHO Avian Influenza Updates

  • Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified the definition of 'easy' or 'efficient' transmission. The virus acquiring such capability will be characterized by:

    • Transmission in a way similar to SARS-CoV-2.

    • Transmission modes potentially including airborne, respiratory droplets, and/or aerosols.

    • Possible spread through surface fomites (potentially more efficiently than SARS-CoV-2).

    • The R0 (basic reproduction number) must be > 1.

    • This determination of 'easy' or 'efficient' transmission, incorporating these characteristics, must be made by a health entity outside the US, such as WHO.

Medicine
COVID
Public Health
Infectious Disease
Pandemic
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