Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
152
2kṀ66k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

resolves YES if 10000 or more people are infected by the end of 2025 in the US, as reported by this website

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1

Market context
H5N1
Public Health
COVID
Infectious Disease
H5N1 Bird Flu
Pandemic
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sold Ṁ309 YES

Decided to cut bait on this one. YES requires that it evolves human-to-human transmission AND that Trump doesn't actively dismantle whatever systems are in place to report cases.

/venki/will-there-be-at-least-10000-confir

This market seems high https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-at-least-100000-americans-die-sCUdAs8UuC

bought Ṁ50 NO

I came here to bet on this market because Scott Alexander sent me.

@palcu thanks. I was wondering what was driving the surge of traders on NO.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/h5n1-much-more-than-you-wanted-to

@palcu guys, the 10 million cases market is higher https://manifold.markets/AlexanderLeCampbell/will-there-be-a-1m-bird-flu-outbrea

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