Will there be an avian flu pandemic before 2026?
51
1kṀ12k2026
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Officially declared pandemic by the WHO before 2026
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?
38% chance
Will there be a 1m+ bird flu outbreak in humans in the US by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of bird flu in 2025?
4% chance
H5N1 pandemic occurs before 2026, and the case fatality rate is <5%
13% chance
Will the WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2025?
15% chance
Will more than 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 bird flu by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
4% chance
Will an Avian Influenza Virus in Humans be Declared a PHEIC before 2030? [Metaculus]
50% chance
Sort by:
Arb, this market should be lower than all of these:
/ahalekelly/will-the-who-declare-a-public-healt-5Eth5ZzpA8 (Public Health Emergency comes before Pandemic)
/NcyRocks/will-the-who-declare-a-public-healt-0e43c4d9f381
@JonathanRay I’d say yes, but I won’t bet because the WHO actually declaring it is very unlikely imo
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?
38% chance
Will there be a 1m+ bird flu outbreak in humans in the US by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of bird flu in 2025?
4% chance
H5N1 pandemic occurs before 2026, and the case fatality rate is <5%
13% chance
Will the WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2025?
15% chance
Will more than 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 bird flu by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
4% chance
Will an Avian Influenza Virus in Humans be Declared a PHEIC before 2030? [Metaculus]
50% chance