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MANIFOLD
[Metaculus] Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?
25
Ṁ450Ṁ7.6k
resolved Feb 2
Resolved
YES

Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, after January 30, 2024, and before February 7, 2024, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military. On January 30, President Biden stated that he has decided how to respond, but the US has not yet publicly revealed its response.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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@jskf Resolves yes.

Metaculus still has this at 30%. Strikes against proxy forces do not count.

@JimAusman The IRGC Quds Force is not a proxy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quds_Force

@JimAusman Metaculus just resolved Yes.

@SemioticRivalry do you have any information on the strikes happening? I'm searching for live information and given your trade activity I figure you might have something.