[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?
3
690
2031
37%
chance

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if the United States controls the entirety of Tehran city's pre-war administrative boundaries according to credible sources within 365 days of a congressional declaration of war or Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) by the United States going into effect. Territorial control will be determined based on reporting from credible war mappers. If there is no such declaration of war or AUMF before January 1, 2030, this question will be Annulled. Only territorial control by US and Iranian government forces will be considered for the purpose of this question. Control by other parties such as insurgents/partisans will not be taken into account. If within the year after an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran this US control of Tehran does not occur, the question resolves as No.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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